Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan | Nomura
25 February 2013
First Insights: China: Fuel price hikes add to inflationary pressures
China last night announced a hike in gasoline and diesel retail prices, effective today. Increases of 3.5% and 3.8% have been applied, respectively, adding RMB300 and RMB290 to the prices per ton. This is the second major price hike announced in five days – on 20 February we saw the largest hike in the rail freight tariff rate since 2003, which was unusual in terms of timing as tariff hikes in Q1 are not common.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Uncovering ‘Diamonds in the Rough’ in Today’s Credit Markets
Uncovering ‘Diamonds in the Rough’ in Today’s Credit Markets
Key Points:
· There are still good opportunities for yield and total return in the credit markets, but there has been a shift in where and how investors can find them.
· The credit markets have had a strong run since the market bottomed in 2009. Many investors searching for income have moved into riskier assets.
· A "diamond in the rough" is a credit that is under-covered, or not actively followed or researched by many investors. At PIMCO, we identify these opportunities through our top-down and bottom-up investment process.
· We’ve identified a number of sectors that appear poised for above-average growth. Housing is at the top of the list, and one of the few bright spots in the U.S. economy. Energy is another industry in which we’re seeing opportunity, and we are also bullish on select credits in emerging economies.
http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Uncovering-Diamonds-in-the-Rough-in-Todays-Credit-Markets.aspx
Key Points:
· There are still good opportunities for yield and total return in the credit markets, but there has been a shift in where and how investors can find them.
· The credit markets have had a strong run since the market bottomed in 2009. Many investors searching for income have moved into riskier assets.
· A "diamond in the rough" is a credit that is under-covered, or not actively followed or researched by many investors. At PIMCO, we identify these opportunities through our top-down and bottom-up investment process.
· We’ve identified a number of sectors that appear poised for above-average growth. Housing is at the top of the list, and one of the few bright spots in the U.S. economy. Energy is another industry in which we’re seeing opportunity, and we are also bullish on select credits in emerging economies.
http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Uncovering-Diamonds-in-the-Rough-in-Todays-Credit-Markets.aspx
Saturday, February 23, 2013
Lenders more willing to provide debt for commercial – survey
Real Estate News
Lenders more willing to provide debt for commercial – survey
22 February 2013
GLOBAL – The level of senior debt for UK commercial real estate projects could reach as much as £36bn (€41.4bn) in 2013 and new lenders could be willing to offer development financing for the property market, according to a survey conducted by the Real Estate Lending Forum (RELF).
http://www.ipe.com/realestate/lenders-more-willing-to-provide-debt-for-commercial-survey_50236.php
Lenders more willing to provide debt for commercial – survey
22 February 2013
GLOBAL – The level of senior debt for UK commercial real estate projects could reach as much as £36bn (€41.4bn) in 2013 and new lenders could be willing to offer development financing for the property market, according to a survey conducted by the Real Estate Lending Forum (RELF).
http://www.ipe.com/realestate/lenders-more-willing-to-provide-debt-for-commercial-survey_50236.php
Friday, February 22, 2013
Survey shows spike in real estate debt interest by institutionals
Real Estate News
Survey shows spike in real estate debt interest by institutionals
21 February 2013
GLOBAL – Institutional investors' interest for real estate debt has jumped over the past 12 months, with more than one-third seeking to allocate capital to the asset class against 8% a year ago, research from Preqin shows.
The report found that, out of the more than 100 investors surveyed, 53% expect to make commitments to private real estate funds in 2013, while only 36% expressed similar views a year ago.
http://www.ipe.com/
Survey shows spike in real estate debt interest by institutionals
21 February 2013
GLOBAL – Institutional investors' interest for real estate debt has jumped over the past 12 months, with more than one-third seeking to allocate capital to the asset class against 8% a year ago, research from Preqin shows.
The report found that, out of the more than 100 investors surveyed, 53% expect to make commitments to private real estate funds in 2013, while only 36% expressed similar views a year ago.
http://www.ipe.com/
Eco Analysis - China's stubborn housing inflation risks further policy tightening (W. Yao)
Eco Analysis - China's stubborn housing inflation risks further policy tightening (W. Yao)
China January housing inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since early 2011. This report justifies Beijing's renewed hawkishness on the housing market. Further acceleration of housing inflation will most likely trigger more policy tightening. Meanwhile, RBA Governor Stevens sounded rather upbeat on the economy in testimony to Parliament, and rather disinclined to cut rates in the short term. Key points were that there is a good deal of stimulus in the pipeline from previous easing, and that the high A$ has been a key factor in the current low rate setting. In response, the A$ strengthened nearly 1c and short-term rates rose.
China January housing inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since early 2011. This report justifies Beijing's renewed hawkishness on the housing market. Further acceleration of housing inflation will most likely trigger more policy tightening. Meanwhile, RBA Governor Stevens sounded rather upbeat on the economy in testimony to Parliament, and rather disinclined to cut rates in the short term. Key points were that there is a good deal of stimulus in the pipeline from previous easing, and that the high A$ has been a key factor in the current low rate setting. In response, the A$ strengthened nearly 1c and short-term rates rose.
Will Floating LNG Revolutionise The Natural Gas Industry?
Will Floating LNG Revolutionise The Natural Gas Industry?
Posted February 21, 2013
Floating liquid natural gas, the notion of performing gas liquefaction offshore on a floating vessel near the point of extraction, has seen a growth in interest since around 2006. Several companies prepared a Floating LNG concept and performed research to develop some non-existing, though indispensable, technological components. During the following years, the industry was marked by some long debates about whether the technology had progressed sufficiently for the deployment of the first unit. After years of discussion and investments, the first Floating LNG project, Shell’s Prelude, has finally been announced in 2011. Today the industry counts over 20 other FLNG projects and its business is sized to exceed 60 Billion USD for the next decade.
http://theenergycollective.com/celinerottier/189491/will-floating-lng-revolutionise-natural-gas-industry
Posted February 21, 2013
Floating liquid natural gas, the notion of performing gas liquefaction offshore on a floating vessel near the point of extraction, has seen a growth in interest since around 2006. Several companies prepared a Floating LNG concept and performed research to develop some non-existing, though indispensable, technological components. During the following years, the industry was marked by some long debates about whether the technology had progressed sufficiently for the deployment of the first unit. After years of discussion and investments, the first Floating LNG project, Shell’s Prelude, has finally been announced in 2011. Today the industry counts over 20 other FLNG projects and its business is sized to exceed 60 Billion USD for the next decade.
http://theenergycollective.com/celinerottier/189491/will-floating-lng-revolutionise-natural-gas-industry
Thursday, February 21, 2013
Asia Chart Alert: China: Property prices rose faster in January
Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan
22 February 2013
Asia Chart Alert: China: Property prices rose faster in January
This should further pressure the government to tighten monetary and property market policies.
22 February 2013
Asia Chart Alert: China: Property prices rose faster in January
This should further pressure the government to tighten monetary and property market policies.
 |
| Fig. 1: Property price growth and M2 growth |
Housing and Core Inflation – It’s Complicated
Housing and Core Inflation – It’s Complicated
Laura Rosner - Market Economics
US Daily Spotlight | 22 Feb 2013 03:15 |
Markets were risk-off on Thursday, as equity markets sold off by more than 0.6% for the second day in a row, while the 10yr Treasury closed the day at 1.98%. Data for the day were unimpressive with jobless claims for the week suggesting only modest improvement in February payroll employment, existing home sales edging marginally higher and the February Philly Fed manufacturing index falling sharply (details of the report were less negative than the headline index implied). Meanwhile, core inflation was slightly stronger than expected in the January CPI report, mainly reflecting a rebound in core goods prices, but also modestly firmer increases in housing costs.
Laura Rosner - Market Economics
US Daily Spotlight | 22 Feb 2013 03:15 |
Markets were risk-off on Thursday, as equity markets sold off by more than 0.6% for the second day in a row, while the 10yr Treasury closed the day at 1.98%. Data for the day were unimpressive with jobless claims for the week suggesting only modest improvement in February payroll employment, existing home sales edging marginally higher and the February Philly Fed manufacturing index falling sharply (details of the report were less negative than the headline index implied). Meanwhile, core inflation was slightly stronger than expected in the January CPI report, mainly reflecting a rebound in core goods prices, but also modestly firmer increases in housing costs.
Asia Insights: Reasons not to be too bullish on China
Fixed Income | Asia Ex-Japan
21 February 2013
Asia Insights: Reasons not to be too bullish on China
· We reiterate our view that the consensus forecast for China’s economic growth is too optimistic. We expect GDP growth to slow in H2 to 7.3% y-o-y while the consensus expects it to be 8.1%.
· We list five recent developments that support our cautious view, including local governments lowering their 2013 GDP growth targets by 0.5 percentage points (pp), and the severe air pollution problems that could spur Beijing to rethink its growth model.
· The strength of coincident macro data may continue in Q1, but we believe leading policy indicators such as total social financing and M2 growth will soon moderate from currently high levels.
21 February 2013
Asia Insights: Reasons not to be too bullish on China
· We reiterate our view that the consensus forecast for China’s economic growth is too optimistic. We expect GDP growth to slow in H2 to 7.3% y-o-y while the consensus expects it to be 8.1%.
· We list five recent developments that support our cautious view, including local governments lowering their 2013 GDP growth targets by 0.5 percentage points (pp), and the severe air pollution problems that could spur Beijing to rethink its growth model.
· The strength of coincident macro data may continue in Q1, but we believe leading policy indicators such as total social financing and M2 growth will soon moderate from currently high levels.
Oil and gas industry facing ‘a roller-coaster ride’
Oil and gas industry facing ‘a roller-coaster ride’
JOSH O’KANE
The Globe and Mail
Thursday, Feb. 21 2013, 6:00 AM EST
Canada is home to the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves and is the sixth-largest producer of oil.
But global economic conditions are pressuring fuel prices worldwide, and Canada’s oil and gas sector has the added frustration of a deficit in infrastructure that, among other things, is driving the price of western Canadian oil down by nearly $25 from benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/oil-and-gas-industry-facing-a-roller-coaster-ride/article8900814/
JOSH O’KANE
The Globe and Mail
Thursday, Feb. 21 2013, 6:00 AM EST
Canada is home to the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves and is the sixth-largest producer of oil.
But global economic conditions are pressuring fuel prices worldwide, and Canada’s oil and gas sector has the added frustration of a deficit in infrastructure that, among other things, is driving the price of western Canadian oil down by nearly $25 from benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/oil-and-gas-industry-facing-a-roller-coaster-ride/article8900814/
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