March 06, 2013
Chile’s Paradox of Prosperity
The country’s economy is thriving, but rising expectations and gaping inequalities sap the popularity of President Sebastián Piñera’s conservative government.
By Jonathan Kandell
Thirty years ago, as Latin America was succumbing to the debt crisis, few nations suffered as much as Chile. The country still bore the scars of the bloody military coup that claimed the lives of former president Salvador Allende and some 3,000 supporters a decade earlier. The debt crisis hit when the economy was undergoing wrenching change from the radical free-market policies pursued by the regime of General Augusto Pinochet. The results were painful: Economic output collapsed by 14 percent in 1982, unemployment soared to more than 30 percent, nearly half the population lived below the poverty line, and the current-account deficit was running at a rate of 12 percent of GDP.
http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Article/3163684/Chiles-Paradox-of-Prosperity.html
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
China's copper anxiety and the Glencore-Xstrata delay
China's copper anxiety and the Glencore-Xstrata delay
By Shelley DuBois, writer-reporter
March 6, 2013: 12:49 PM ET
China needs copper in ways that more mature markets don't. So they are taking their time reviewing the commodities mega-merger.
http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/06/china-copper-glencore-xstrata/
By Shelley DuBois, writer-reporter
March 6, 2013: 12:49 PM ET
China needs copper in ways that more mature markets don't. So they are taking their time reviewing the commodities mega-merger.
http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/06/china-copper-glencore-xstrata/
Monday, March 4, 2013
Turkey: Inflation - as expected
Turkey: Inflation - as expected
At 0.3% m/m, February's CPI inflation was slightly below the market consensus and our forecast (both at 0.4% m/m). Consequently, annual inflation declined 0.3pp to 7.0%. The lower-than-expected CPI was mainly due to food and clothing prices. Annual food inflation fell from 6.85% in January to 5.60% in February, partly correcting the 3pp rise previous month. The decline in clothing prices was higher than the seasonal averages at 6.4% m/m in February.
At 0.3% m/m, February's CPI inflation was slightly below the market consensus and our forecast (both at 0.4% m/m). Consequently, annual inflation declined 0.3pp to 7.0%. The lower-than-expected CPI was mainly due to food and clothing prices. Annual food inflation fell from 6.85% in January to 5.60% in February, partly correcting the 3pp rise previous month. The decline in clothing prices was higher than the seasonal averages at 6.4% m/m in February.
Sequester Politics, Freddie Mac Earnings, Home on the Range
RATES
FI SPECIAL
March 4, 2013
Sequester Politics, Freddie Mac Earnings, Home on the Range
■ This is the economy under the sequester.
The $85bn of sequester cuts have now officially gone into effect. Two Senate bills - one from either party - aimed at reworking or providing more flexibility for the cuts, failed votes of cloture and are provisionally dead. To sidestep the next hurdle of the fiscal crisis, House Republicans are said to be drafting a bill that will fund the government for the remainder of the fiscal year. On the upside, this is an attempt to remove the threat of a government shutdown before the existing continuing resolution (CR) expires on March 27th. On the downside, it probably means there is virtually no possibility that a compromise exchanging tax reform for entitlement reform will be forthcoming from this Congress.
FI SPECIAL
March 4, 2013
Sequester Politics, Freddie Mac Earnings, Home on the Range
■ This is the economy under the sequester.
The $85bn of sequester cuts have now officially gone into effect. Two Senate bills - one from either party - aimed at reworking or providing more flexibility for the cuts, failed votes of cloture and are provisionally dead. To sidestep the next hurdle of the fiscal crisis, House Republicans are said to be drafting a bill that will fund the government for the remainder of the fiscal year. On the upside, this is an attempt to remove the threat of a government shutdown before the existing continuing resolution (CR) expires on March 27th. On the downside, it probably means there is virtually no possibility that a compromise exchanging tax reform for entitlement reform will be forthcoming from this Congress.
Eco Analysis - Asia Round-up: Property market tightening in China sours the mood (K. Baader, W. Yao)
ECONOMICS
ECO ANALYSIS
March 4, 2013
Eco Analysis - Asia Round-up: Property market tightening in China sours the mood (K. Baader, W. Yao)
Asian stock markets started the week on a sour note, reacting to news of additional measures in mainland China to restrain real estate prices. This was arguably also the main factor driving down the Australian dollar, although the economic news reports this morning were also weak. The main exception to stock market weakness was Japan, where stocks are trading firmer despite a fractionally stronger yen. The relative stability of the yen is noteworthy, given that the proposed new BoJ governor, Mr Kuroda, reiterated in his confirmation hearing his strongly dovish bias, arguing for accelerated and broadened asset purchases. Lastly, an unexpectedly weak inflation reading in South Korea in our view boosted the chances of a rate cut by the Bank of Korea, a view that appears to be shared by the market, given the sharp decline in two-year government bond yields this morning.
ECO ANALYSIS
March 4, 2013
Eco Analysis - Asia Round-up: Property market tightening in China sours the mood (K. Baader, W. Yao)
Asian stock markets started the week on a sour note, reacting to news of additional measures in mainland China to restrain real estate prices. This was arguably also the main factor driving down the Australian dollar, although the economic news reports this morning were also weak. The main exception to stock market weakness was Japan, where stocks are trading firmer despite a fractionally stronger yen. The relative stability of the yen is noteworthy, given that the proposed new BoJ governor, Mr Kuroda, reiterated in his confirmation hearing his strongly dovish bias, arguing for accelerated and broadened asset purchases. Lastly, an unexpectedly weak inflation reading in South Korea in our view boosted the chances of a rate cut by the Bank of Korea, a view that appears to be shared by the market, given the sharp decline in two-year government bond yields this morning.
Sunday, March 3, 2013
Eco Analysis - China National People\'s Congress meeting preview (W. Yao)
ECONOMICS
ECO ANALYSIS
March 4, 2013
Eco Analysis - China National People\'s Congress meeting preview (W. Yao)
The annual plenary session of the National People's Congress (NPC) will convene on 5 March and close on 17 March. There is more to watch than just the routine Government Work Report and fiscal budget. New government leaders - including the President, Premier and top Ministers - will be appointed and formally take the helm. On the reform front, aside from affirmative rhetoric, we expect two concrete steps.
ECO ANALYSIS
March 4, 2013
Eco Analysis - China National People\'s Congress meeting preview (W. Yao)
The annual plenary session of the National People's Congress (NPC) will convene on 5 March and close on 17 March. There is more to watch than just the routine Government Work Report and fiscal budget. New government leaders - including the President, Premier and top Ministers - will be appointed and formally take the helm. On the reform front, aside from affirmative rhetoric, we expect two concrete steps.
Saturday, March 2, 2013
Chile: Steady Rate as the Only Option, Despite Concerns
Chile: Steady Rate as the Only Option, Despite Concerns
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 01 Mar 2013 19:19 |
Neutral rate and stance. We read the minutes of the 14 February monetary policy meeting as broadly neutral regarding the short-term outlook, ruling out any changes in the policy rate for now. According to the minutes, the policy rate remains within a neutral range and the decision to keep it steady at 5.0% was unanimous.
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 01 Mar 2013 19:19 |
Neutral rate and stance. We read the minutes of the 14 February monetary policy meeting as broadly neutral regarding the short-term outlook, ruling out any changes in the policy rate for now. According to the minutes, the policy rate remains within a neutral range and the decision to keep it steady at 5.0% was unanimous.
Securities commissioner sues Longmont private equity fund
Securities commissioner sues Longmont private equity fund
By Aldo Svaldi
The Denver Post
Posted: 03/01/2013
Colorado Securities Commissioner Fred Joseph has filed a complaint against a Longmont private-equity fund and its principals on allegations they defrauded more than 20 investors out of $3.2 million, according to an announcement Friday.
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_22698228/securities-commissioner-sues-longmont-private-equity-fund
By Aldo Svaldi
The Denver Post
Posted: 03/01/2013
Colorado Securities Commissioner Fred Joseph has filed a complaint against a Longmont private-equity fund and its principals on allegations they defrauded more than 20 investors out of $3.2 million, according to an announcement Friday.
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_22698228/securities-commissioner-sues-longmont-private-equity-fund
Friday, March 1, 2013
First Insights: China: Another round of policy tightening in the property sector
Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan
01 March 2013
First Insights: China: Another round of policy tightening in the property sector
The government announced today a set of new tightening policies in the property market, including: (1) imposing a 20% capital gain tax on property transactions; (2) the PBoC to raise the down payment requirement and mortgage rate in cities, where property prices have risen quickly; and (3) extending the "local resident" requirement to cities, where property prices have increased swiftly and (4) for cities with "local resident" requirements, such policies shall be implemented in a more restrictive way.
01 March 2013
First Insights: China: Another round of policy tightening in the property sector
The government announced today a set of new tightening policies in the property market, including: (1) imposing a 20% capital gain tax on property transactions; (2) the PBoC to raise the down payment requirement and mortgage rate in cities, where property prices have risen quickly; and (3) extending the "local resident" requirement to cities, where property prices have increased swiftly and (4) for cities with "local resident" requirements, such policies shall be implemented in a more restrictive way.
Chile: Happy 2013 Beginning for Activity
Chile: Happy 2013 Beginning for Activity
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 28 Feb 2013 15:06 |
According to data releases today, the economy began the year on a strong note. In January, manufacturing output surprised to the upside, retail sales expanded rapidly and unemployment fell to a six-year low. The monthly proxy for real GDP (Imacec) due out next Tuesday is thus set to reflect rapid economic expansion in January. We project a 6.8% y/y rise in the Imacec in the first month of the year. Rapid growth supports our view that fiscal and monetary policies need to turn less accommodative to reduce the risk of overheating. Chile continues to exhibit strong growth
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 28 Feb 2013 15:06 |
According to data releases today, the economy began the year on a strong note. In January, manufacturing output surprised to the upside, retail sales expanded rapidly and unemployment fell to a six-year low. The monthly proxy for real GDP (Imacec) due out next Tuesday is thus set to reflect rapid economic expansion in January. We project a 6.8% y/y rise in the Imacec in the first month of the year. Rapid growth supports our view that fiscal and monetary policies need to turn less accommodative to reduce the risk of overheating. Chile continues to exhibit strong growth
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