How Are the SBA’s Loan Programs Doing?

How Are the SBA’s Loan Programs Doing?
By Karen E. Klein
March 14, 2013

Question: I read your 2011 article about U.S. Small Business Administration loans and wondered what is going on with the SBA loan program for 2013? Are there any new loan programs this year?

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-14/how-are-the-sbas-loan-programs-doing

Shale Oil: A Deep Dive Into Implications for the Global Economy and Commodity Investors

Viewpoints
March 2013

Shale Oil: A Deep Dive Into Implications for the Global Economy and Commodity Investors
Greg E. Sharenow, Mihir P. Worah

• The shale oil revolution in the U.S. is a classic example of high prices and improving technology spurring methods of commodity production that may have been historically unimaginable.

• Although growth in U.S. shale production has not yet been sufficient to meaningfully weaken oil prices, it has had a notable impact on long-term price expectations, on both the upside and downside.

• After acting as a significant brake on economic activity during the run-up in prices during the last decade, greater energy availability will at the very least be a positive for global growth.

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Shale-Oil-A-Deep-Dive-Into-Implications-for-the-Global-Economy-and-Commodity-Investors.aspx

When Will the US Energy Boom Help You Out at the Gas Pump?

When Will the US Energy Boom Help You Out at the Gas Pump?

Published: Thursday, 14 Mar 2013 | 2:39 PM ET
By: Javier E. David
Special to CNBC.com

First, the good news: the U.S. energy sector is being modernized at a breakneck pace, with cleaner and cheaper fuels predicted to drive down prices and to eventually reduce the economy's dependency on foreign oil.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100554510

An Energy Coup for Japan: ‘Flammable Ice’

An Energy Coup for Japan: ‘Flammable Ice’

Published: Wednesday, 13 Mar 2013 | 8:43 AM ET
By: Hiroko Tabuchi

TOKYO — Japan said Tuesday that it had extracted gas from offshore deposits of methane hydrate — sometimes called "flammable ice" — a breakthrough that officials and experts said could be a step toward tapping a promising but still little-understood energy source.

The gas, whose extraction from the undersea hydrate reservoir was thought to be a world first, could provide an alternative source of energy to known oil and gas reserves. That could be crucial especially for Japan, which is the world's biggest importer of liquefied natural gas and is engaged in a public debate about whether to resume the country's heavy reliance on nuclear power.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100545740

KKR Said to Debut Real Estate Fund With $500 Million

KKR Said to Debut Real Estate Fund With $500 Million
By Devin Banerjee & Sabrina Willmer - Mar 13, 2013

KKR & Co. (KKR), the buyout firm run by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, is preparing to market its first fund dedicated to real estate investments with an initial $500 million committed to the pool, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-12/kkr-said-to-debut-real-estate-fund-with-500-million.html

How the US Can Start Exporting Energy: Chevron CEO

How the US Can Start Exporting Energy: Chevron CEO

Published: Tuesday, 12 Mar 2013 | 5:30 PM ET
By: Justin Menza

Chevron will be making major investments to increase its oil and gas production this year, but only a fraction of those investments will be made in the U.S., CEO John Watson told CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Tuesday.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100547355

'Dr. Copper' Has Raised Doubts About Recovery

'Dr. Copper' Has Raised Doubts About Recovery

Published: Tuesday, 12 Mar 2013 | 1:24 PM ET
By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Senior Writer

Both the stock market rally and economic recovery are missing what historically has been a key element - a house call from "Dr. Copper."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100546529

Bond bubble may be closer to popping

With the stock market heating up, there is growing concern that the long-lasting bond bubble might finally be ready to pop. As major stock indexes like the Dow and S&P 500 soar to record highs, investors are confidently leaving the safety of bonds to chase higher returns in equities. Consequently, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has climbed past 2 percent, hitting an 11-month high. As the economy slowly recovers, this shift toward riskier assets is likely to continue.

Adding to the shift, the Federal Reserve is expected to halt further stimulus measures, paving the way for long-term interest rates to climb naturally. Market strategists predict a steady rise in yields, potentially reaching 3.2 percent by 2015. This upward trend in rates could spell trouble for the housing market, as higher mortgage rates would likely slow down home buying and refinancing, ultimately squeezing the banks.

Other global factors are also pushing rates higher. Aggressive money-printing in Japan and Europe is strengthening the U.S. dollar, while ongoing political battles in Washington over the debt ceiling raise the threat of another credit downgrade. The transition might not be a sudden crash like previous financial crises, but it certainly signals a bumpy road ahead for bond investors.

Based on the article: Paul R. La Monica, "Bond bubble may be closer to popping" (CNNMoney) • Read the original post

최근 주식 시장이 뜨겁게 달아오르면서, 오랜 기간 이어져 온 채권 시장의 거품이 꺼질 수 있다는 우려가 커지고 있습니다. 다우와 S&P 500 지수가 연일 최고치를 기록하면서 투자자들은 안전한 채권보다는 수익성이 높은 주식으로 눈을 돌리고 있습니다. 그 결과, 미국 10년물 국채 금리는 최근 11개월 만에 가장 높은 수준인 2퍼센트 위로 올라섰습니다. 경제가 천천히 회복됨에 따라 투자자들의 이러한 위험 선호 현상은 당분간 계속될 것으로 보입니다.

여기에 미국 연방준비제도가 시장에 돈을 더 푸는 부양책을 멈출 것으로 예상되면서 금리 상승세는 더욱 뚜렷해질 전망입니다. 전문가들은 10년물 국채 금리가 꾸준히 올라 2015년에는 3.2퍼센트까지 도달할 수 있다고 분석합니다. 이렇게 금리가 오르면 주택 담보 대출 금리도 함께 뛰어올라 부동산 시장의 활기를 떨어뜨리고 은행들에게도 큰 부담이 될 수 있습니다.

뿐만 아니라, 일본과 유럽의 돈 풀기 정책으로 인한 달러 가치 상승, 그리고 미국의 국가 부채를 둘러싼 정치권의 갈등도 금리를 끌어올리는 불안 요소로 꼽힙니다. 과거 금융 위기처럼 한순간에 시장이 무너지는 충격은 아닐지라도, 안전하다고 믿었던 채권 시장에 곧 찬바람이 불어올 수 있습니다.

참고자료: Paul R. La Monica, "Bond bubble may be closer to popping" (CNNMoney) • 기사 원문 읽기

German HICP inflation decelerates to 1.8%

■ German HICP inflation decelerates to 1.8%

In 2012, German HICP remained broadly stable around 2% yoy. Since the beginning of the year, HICP inflation decelerated slightly from 2.0% yoy in December to 1.8% yoy in February, thereby hitting a 27-month. Most of the fall can be attributed to lower food inflation, as we observed a fall from 4.5% yoy to 3.1% yoy. Looking ahead, we expect the German HICP to average above 2% in 2013 on the back of a relatively strong wage growth. We should also see higher inflation rates in Germany, compared to the euro area average, once VAT hikes drop out of annual comparison in H2 2013.

UK data bring back the fear of a “triple dip”

■ UK data bring back the fear of a “triple dip”

January manufacturing output contracted along with industrial production (-1.2% mom). Most of the fall in the industrial production can be attributed to the maintenance issues in the North Sea production platforms; which already contributed to the deterioration in activity in Q4 2012. In addition, the heavy snow in January had a strong negative impact on the manufacturing output. As these factors are temporary and set to be reversed, it is too early to expect a technical recession in Q1 2013.Looking ahead, the sharp fall of sterling since the beginning of the year will play some role in helping the manufacturers.