2014 US Credit Outlook - Living in a Lean World

2014 US Credit Outlook - Living in a Lean World

Mark Howard, Colleen Watson, Ashish Jain - Credit
The Weekly Credit Pulse | 12 Dec 2013 16:47 | 1131 Kb

Summary
2014 US Credit Market Roadmap
US credit spreads are likely to grind tighter through much of 2014, but the path will not be linear or easy. Decent fundamentals and solid inflows are offset by rising interest rates, suppressed volatility, and skinny valuations. Total returns are expected to be modest in 2014 given our rates forecast, but excess returns are expected to be decidedly positive. We forecast 13bp of cash IG spread tightening and 58bp of HY tightening by year-end.

CIT Survey Finds Middle Market Commercial Real Estate Executives Cautiously Optimistic But Feeling The Strain Of The Taxes And Regulations

http://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2013/12/12/cit-survey-finds-middle-market-commercial-real-estate-executives-cautiously-optimistic-but-feeling-the-strain-of-the-taxes-and-regulations/

12/12/2013 @ 9:11AM
CIT Survey Finds Middle Market Commercial Real Estate Executives Cautiously Optimistic But Feeling The Strain Of The Taxes And Regulations

60% Say Their Go-Forward Orientation Is Opportunistic, With a Mix of Challenges and Opportunities
60% Say the Current Tax and Regulatory Climate Is Placing a Strain on Their Performance
40% Say They Are Negotiating Harder With State and Local Governments to Obtain Tax Credits

NEW YORK – December 12, 2013 – Middle market commercial real estate executives are expressing cautious optimism toward the market and are looking to take advantage of long-term investment opportunities. However, the majority are finding that the current tax and regulatory climate is placing a strain on the performance of their companies. These are some of the findings from a recent survey (cit.com/realestateoutlook) by CIT Group Inc. (NYSE: CIT) cit.com, a leading provider of financing and advisory services to small businesses and middle market companies, and Forbes Insights.

Economy, Marc Faber

The problem with Mr. Obama is that you get more regulation and it’s a disincentive for businessmen to hire people. You probably also get higher taxes, so in terms of the economy, he is very negative in my view.

- Marc Faber (1946- )

US Views: Looking to 2014 (Hatzius)

US Views: Looking to 2014 (Hatzius)

Published December 10, 2013

1. The economic news remains broadly encouraging. Although we would discount the 3.6% increase in Q3 GDP—which was inflated by a large inventory contribution that is likely to reverse in Q4—other indicators also suggest that growth has accelerated since earlier in the year. Nonfarm payrolls grew a solid 203,000 in November, business surveys are at levels consistent with above-trend growth, and the consumer picture is improving, judging from the latest auto sales and consumer sentiment figures. Taking October and November together to adjust for the government shutdown distortions, our current activity indicator (CAI) has averaged 3% in the past two months, up from around 2% in the first half of 2013. Likewise, our US-MAP surprise index has moved back into positive territory, indicating that the economic activity data are mostly beating consensus forecasts.

SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK: Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm

SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK
Release Date: December 10, 2013 | Next Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures

Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels

SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK: Prices

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/prices.cfm

SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK
Release Date: December 10, 2013 | Next Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures

Prices

SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK: Overview

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/index.cfm

SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK
Release Date: December 10, 2013 | Next Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures

Overview

PIERRE & VACANCES RETURNS TO PROFITABILITY

PIERRE & VACANCES RETURNS TO PROFITABILITY

The Pierre & Vacances Center Parcs group closed the year with an operating profit of 2.6 million euro, as compared to a loss of 7 million euro last year.

http://hospitality-on.com/en/news/2013/12/10/pierre-vacances-returns-to-profitability/

Economists a bit more upbeat about 2014

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101254028

Economists a bit more upbeat about 2014

Published: Monday, 9 Dec 2013 | 12:01 AM ET
By: John W. Schoen | CNBC.com Economics Reporter

They're not exactly singing "Happy Days Are Here Again," but business economists are feeling a little more upbeat about the recovery and job market heading into next year, according to a survey of the group released Monday.

GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015

http://www.cushmanwakefield.kr/en-gb/research-and-insight/2013/global-office-forecast-2014-2015/

GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015
Published Date : 04/12/2013
Maria Sicola

The following is a summary
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The global office market is poised for slow steady growth in 2014, while 2015 should be more robust as recovery takes hold and business gains renewed confidence. Jakarta, Dublin and Boston are the regional leaders among the top cities forecasted to see the highest office rental rate growth through 2015.