Time, Western Proverb

Time is money.

- Western Proverb

Courage, Chinese Proverb

Only the brave deserve the fair.

- Chinese Proverb

However, only the rich, fat and cowardly merchants can afford the same.

Howard Marks: Distressed Debt, Real Estate Could Provide Good Returns

Howard Marks: Distressed Debt and Real Estate Investment Outlook

(Source: ValueWalk, December 17, 2013)

Howard Marks, Chairman of Oaktree Capital Group, shared his views at the 2013 Goldman Sachs Financial Conference regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tapering policy. He argued that markets had already priced in much of the tapering effect, so the actual implementation might not cause a sharp rise in yields.

Marks noted that the current economic recovery is weaker than past cycles, with moderate inflation. He estimated that the 10-year Treasury yield would remain between 3% and 4%, regardless of tapering.

Institutional investors such as U.S. pension funds and endowments typically target returns of 7.5–8%. However, with Treasuries yielding 1–3%, investment-grade bonds around 4%, and equities at 6–7%, investors are increasingly turning to alternatives. Marks highlighted that hedge funds have struggled to deliver such returns, while private equity and private real estate can generate 12–14% with higher variability. Credit-based alternatives, he explained, can provide around 10% net returns with lower volatility.

Although distressed debt opportunities are less attractive than during the financial crisis, Marks pointed out that niches remain in sectors such as shipping, power, and non-prime European real estate.

Real estate, being cyclical, also presents opportunities. Oaktree recently raised capital for a fund investing in both real estate assets and debt, targeting returns of 15–20%. In addition, the firm sees potential in non-prime city real estate debt, aiming for 10–12% returns with lower leverage.

In conclusion, Marks emphasized that distressed debt and real estate remain meaningful alternative investment opportunities for investors seeking higher returns.

Howard Marks: 부실채권과 부동산 투자 전망

(출처: ValueWalk, 2013년 12월 17일)

오크트리 캐피탈 그룹(Oaktree Capital Group)의 회장 Howard Marks는 2013년 골드만삭스 금융 컨퍼런스에서 미국 연준의 테이퍼링(양적완화 축소)에 대해 의견을 밝혔습니다. 그는 이미 시장이 테이퍼링의 영향을 상당 부분 반영했기 때문에 실제 시행 시 금리 급등은 제한적일 것이라고 전망했습니다.

Marks는 현재 경제 회복세가 과거보다 약하고 인플레이션도 완만하다고 지적했습니다. 따라서 10년물 국채 금리는 테이퍼링 여부와 관계없이 3~4% 수준일 것으로 내다봤습니다.

또한 미국 연기금과 대학 기금 같은 기관 투자자들은 7.5~8% 수익률을 목표로 하지만, 국채(1~3%), 우량채(4%), 주식(6~7%)만으로는 이를 달성하기 어렵다고 설명했습니다. 이에 따라 투자자들은 헤지펀드, 사모펀드, 부동산 등 대체투자에 관심을 높이고 있으며, 특히 신용 기반 대체투자는 약 10%의 안정적인 수익을 기대할 수 있다고 강조했습니다.

부실채권 시장은 금융위기 당시만큼 매력적이지는 않지만, 유럽의 해운, 전력, 비우량 부동산 분야에서 기회가 존재한다고 언급했습니다. 또한 부동산은 경기순환적 특성을 지니며, 오크트리는 부동산 자산과 부채에 투자하는 펀드를 조성해 15~20% 수익률을 목표로 하고 있습니다. 특히 비우량 도시의 부동산 부채 투자에서 10~12% 수익률을 기대한다고 밝혔습니다.

결론적으로 Marks는 부실채권과 부동산이 향후 투자자들에게 의미 있는 대체투자 기회를 제공할 수 있다고 강조했습니다.

CRE Recovery to Accelerate in 2014 (by JLL)

Commercial Real Estate Recovery to Accelerate in 2014

Hello. I will provide a clean and straightforward summary of the report outlining the 2014 commercial real estate market trends.

The core message of this report is that the commercial real estate recovery is gaining significant momentum. Global investment volumes are expected to show a solid 10 percent growth next year. While the leasing market has been somewhat cautious compared to the investment boom, this imbalance is smoothly narrowing, with the United States market leading the way.

Moving past a stagnant 2013, the leasing market is looking forward to a pleasant growth of 5 to 10 percent in 2014. The flow of the United States office market is exceptionally good. As demand expands beyond the tech and energy sectors into various fields, and new supply continues to shrink, prime downtown areas are creating highly favorable conditions for landlords.

The influence of the Millennial generation is also worth noticing. Their strong preference for urban environments with convenient transportation and abundant entertainment is reshaping the real estate landscape. Naturally, because companies are utilizing office spaces much more efficiently than before, the overall speed of space expansion might feel rather steady and calm.

Nevertheless, office rents are steadily projected to rise by about 5.5 percent. The report summarizes that as job numbers grow and the housing market revives, the commercial real estate market will continue to enjoy a diverse and stable recovery.

Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20131217-906487.html

This text was thoughtfully prepared with the assistance of artificial intelligence to ensure a refined and accessible reading experience.

안녕하세요. 2014년 상업용 부동산 시장의 흐름을 읽어주는 Jones Lang LaSalle(JLL)의 보고서가 나왔습니다.

이 보고서의 핵심은 상업용 부동산 시장의 회복에 한층 속도가 붙는다는 것입니다. 내년 글로벌 투자 규모가 10퍼센트가량 튼튼하게 성장할 것으로 내다보고 있습니다. 그동안 투자 열기에 비해 임대 시장이 다소 조심스러운 모습을 보였지만 미국 시장을 선두로 이러한 불균형이 매끄럽게 줄어들고 있습니다.

임대 시장의 경우 정체되었던 2013년을 지나 2014년에는 5에서 10퍼센트 수준의 기분 좋은 성장을 맞이할 것으로 기대합니다. 특히 미국 오피스 시장의 흐름이 매우 좋습니다. 기술과 에너지 산업에 국한되었던 수요가 다양한 분야로 넓어지고 신규 공급마저 줄어들면서 주요 도심 지역은 임대인에게 매우 유리한 환경이 만들어지고 있습니다.

밀레니얼 세대의 영향력도 눈여겨볼 만합니다. 교통이 편리하고 즐길 거리가 많은 도심형 환경을 선호하는 이들의 성향이 부동산 시장의 지형을 새롭게 바꾸고 있습니다. 물론 기업들이 사무 공간을 과거보다 훨씬 효율적으로 사용하고 있어 전체적인 임대 면적 증가 속도는 차분하게 느껴질 수 있습니다.

하지만 오피스 임대료는 5점5퍼센트가량 꾸준히 오를 것으로 전망합니다. 전반적으로 일자리가 늘어나고 주택 시장이 살아나면서 상업용 부동산 시장 역시 다양하고 안정적인 회복세를 이어갈 것이라고 보고 있습니다.

원문 출처: http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20131217-906487.html

이 글은 인공지능(AI)을 활용하여 다듬었습니다.

Steady growth predicted for the global office market in 2014

http://www.propertywire.com/news/global-news/global-office-predictions-2014-201312178577.html

Steady growth predicted for the global office market in 2014
Tuesday, 17 December 2013

The global office market is poised for slow steady growth in 2014, while 2015 should be more robust as recovery takes hold and business gains renewed confidence, according to a new report.

A new Global Credit Perspectives

A new Global Credit Perspectives by Mark Kiesel is available on pimco.com .

Key Points:

· An improving outlook for U.S. housing will be constructive for consumer spending, confidence and jobs.

· There are many ways to invest directly and indirectly in companies that should benefit from higher housing prices, a pickup in home repairs and remodeling, and residential investment spending.

· We continue to favor select investments in homebuilders, building materials, appliance manufacturers, lumber, home improvement, banks, title insurance, mortgage origination and servicing, and non-Agency mortgage-backed securities.

Looking to play the rental market? Blackstone wants you

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101276543

Looking to play the rental market? Blackstone wants you

Published: Monday, 16 Dec 2013 | 3:23 PM ET
By: Diana Olick | CNBC Real Estate Reporter

It is yet another step in the evolution of the single-family rental market: a new lending platform by one of the biggest names in the trade, Blackstone Group. After investing close to $7 billion in rental properties through its Invitation Homes unit, Blackstone is offering cash to smaller investors wanting to get into the game. The firm is in the closing process on the first deals.

AEO2014 EARLY RELEASE OVERVIEW

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/index.cfm

Release Date: December 16, 2013 | Full Report Release Date: Early Spring 2014 | CORRECTION | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2014)

This release is an abridged version of the Annual Energy Outlook that highlights changes in the AEO Reference case projections for key energy topics. The Early Release includes data tables for the Reference case only. The AEO2014 full version will be released early Spring 2014.
Download the AEO2014 Early Release Report

London office market: Good prospects from 2014

http://www.property-magazine.eu/london-office-market-good-prospects-from-2014-23396.html

UK
13. Dezember 2012
London office market: Good prospects from 2014

In its latest research paper, Henderson’s c. £12.4 billion Property business, examines prospects for the Central London office market. The report notes that City Fringe, West End and Midtown sub-markets have benefitted from strong take up by technology, media and telecommunications firms during an otherwise difficult year for the domestic economy. Core City take up has been dominated by lettings from the insurance sector with very subdued activity from banking. Underlying City take-up has been relatively stable over the last 12 months or so, at around 75% of the long run average. This sub-par level of activity is expected to persist while low confidence and volatility persists in the markets.

Another Office Tower Trades Hands in San Francisco as Local Market Soars

http://www.multihousingnews.com/cities/san-francisco/another-office-tower-trades-hands-in-san-francisco-as-local-market-soars/1004094912.html

Dec. 13, 2013

Another Office Tower Trades Hands in San Francisco as Local Market Soars
By Alex Girda, Associate Editor

As the San Francisco office market becomes one of the healthiest local markets in the entire country, the rush is on for investors to capitalize on the impressive appeal of the San Francisco Bay Area before 2013 draws to a close. We’ve recently reported on the major deals completed in the city for high-profile office assets, and now KBS Real Estate Investment Trust III is adding to an already impressive tally of major real estate transactions completed just weeks before the end of Q4. The public non-traded REIT recently shelled out $121 million for an office building in the city’s South Financial District.