Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 12 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November.
CHILE
Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November. Consumer confidence rose to 53.4 last month, according to Adimark. This is the sixth straight month with consumer sentiment readings above the 50 neutral level.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
U.S. Commercial, Multi-family Mortgage Debt Outstanding Increases for Fourth Consecutive Quarter
World Property Channel
U.S. Commercial, Multi-family Mortgage Debt Outstanding Increases for Fourth Consecutive Quarter
Posted by David Barley 12/11/12 1:10 PM EST
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $6.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, in the third quarter of 2012, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings.
U.S. Commercial, Multi-family Mortgage Debt Outstanding Increases for Fourth Consecutive Quarter
Posted by David Barley 12/11/12 1:10 PM EST
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $6.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, in the third quarter of 2012, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings.
Eco Analysis - More evidence of China in early-cycle expansion
Eco Analysis - More evidence of China in early-cycle expansion
■ Strong fiscal revenue growth
China's fiscal revenue growth rebounded further to 21.9%yoy in November from 13.7%yoy in October, the fastest pace since August 2011. More importantly, tax revenues grew 21.1%yoy, compared with 12.5%yoy in the previous month and 9%yoy during the first ten months. Value-added tax, which contributes one-quarter of total tax revenues, recovered quite strongly and grew 16.2%yoy in November (vs. 9.2%yoy in October), consistent with the improving trend in industrial and retail sales. The strength of fiscal revenue is another piece of evidence that the Chinese economy is recovering.
■ Strong fiscal revenue growth
China's fiscal revenue growth rebounded further to 21.9%yoy in November from 13.7%yoy in October, the fastest pace since August 2011. More importantly, tax revenues grew 21.1%yoy, compared with 12.5%yoy in the previous month and 9%yoy during the first ten months. Value-added tax, which contributes one-quarter of total tax revenues, recovered quite strongly and grew 16.2%yoy in November (vs. 9.2%yoy in October), consistent with the improving trend in industrial and retail sales. The strength of fiscal revenue is another piece of evidence that the Chinese economy is recovering.
Monday, December 10, 2012
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 10 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week.
CHILE
The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week. BCCh will have its monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday. We expect no changes, in line with trends throughout most of the year. The consensus agrees with this view.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 10 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week.
CHILE
The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week. BCCh will have its monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday. We expect no changes, in line with trends throughout most of the year. The consensus agrees with this view.
Turkey: GDP Surprises on the Downside
Turkey: GDP Surprises on the Downside
At 1.6% y/y, Q3 GDP growth was weaker than the expectations (2.6% y/y) and our forecast (3.2% y/y). On a seasonally adjusted basis GDP grew by 0.2% q/q in Q3, broadly in line with our expectation. The downward surprise in the headline growth number was mostly on the back of weaker-than-expected private investment and exports. The contribution of private sector investment was -2.2pp to growth. The expansion in exports slowed down to 11.9% y/y in Q3 from 20.9% y/y in Q2, still the contribution of foreign demand was 3.4pp. Consumption of households subtracted 0.4pp from growth whereas public sector spending contributed 0.8pp to growth. At the same time, Q1 GDP growth was revised to 3.4% from 3.3%, and Q2 GDP growth to 3% from 2.9%.
At 1.6% y/y, Q3 GDP growth was weaker than the expectations (2.6% y/y) and our forecast (3.2% y/y). On a seasonally adjusted basis GDP grew by 0.2% q/q in Q3, broadly in line with our expectation. The downward surprise in the headline growth number was mostly on the back of weaker-than-expected private investment and exports. The contribution of private sector investment was -2.2pp to growth. The expansion in exports slowed down to 11.9% y/y in Q3 from 20.9% y/y in Q2, still the contribution of foreign demand was 3.4pp. Consumption of households subtracted 0.4pp from growth whereas public sector spending contributed 0.8pp to growth. At the same time, Q1 GDP growth was revised to 3.4% from 3.3%, and Q2 GDP growth to 3% from 2.9%.
Colombia Weekly
Colombia Weekly
Economics/FX/Interest Rate Teams,Rodrigo Fuenmayor,William Pereira - FX/Rates
Colombia Weekly | 10 Dec 2012 16:12 |
Summary
The minutes show the BanRep’s resolve to remain on hold for a while.
The minutes of November’s meeting (when the bank cut its policy rate by 25bp) appear very similar to the minutes of the October meeting (when the board remained on hold). Both sets of minutes are broadly neutral, in our view.
Economics/FX/Interest Rate Teams,Rodrigo Fuenmayor,William Pereira - FX/Rates
Colombia Weekly | 10 Dec 2012 16:12 |
Summary
The minutes show the BanRep’s resolve to remain on hold for a while.
The minutes of November’s meeting (when the bank cut its policy rate by 25bp) appear very similar to the minutes of the October meeting (when the board remained on hold). Both sets of minutes are broadly neutral, in our view.
Eco Analysis - Disappointing data across Asia: CH trade, AU home loans, JP in recession (K. Baader, W. Yao, K. Katahira)
Eco Analysis - Disappointing data across Asia: CH trade, AU home loans, JP in recession (K. Baader, W. Yao, K. Katahira)
■ Disappointing China's trade data reflected structural weakness in both external and domestic demand.
Contrary to the activity data released over the weekend, China's trade growth in November disappointed, with exports growing 2.9%yoy (Cons. 9%, SG 7%, Previous 11.9%) and imports flat yoy (Cons. 2%, SG 0%, Previous 2.4%). As a result of weak exports, the trade surplus also came in smaller than expected at USD19.6bn (Cons. & SG, USD26.8bn), down from USD32bn in October.
■ Disappointing China's trade data reflected structural weakness in both external and domestic demand.
Contrary to the activity data released over the weekend, China's trade growth in November disappointed, with exports growing 2.9%yoy (Cons. 9%, SG 7%, Previous 11.9%) and imports flat yoy (Cons. 2%, SG 0%, Previous 2.4%). As a result of weak exports, the trade surplus also came in smaller than expected at USD19.6bn (Cons. & SG, USD26.8bn), down from USD32bn in October.
Asia Insights: China: Exports slowed but domestic demand remains stron
Fixed Income | Asia Ex-Japan
10 December 2012
Asia Insights: China: Exports slowed but domestic demand remains strong
·China’s export growth slowed more than expected in November to 2.9% y-o-y from 11.6% in October.
·Import growth slowed to 0.0% y-o-y from 2.4%, but import growth for domestic consumption picked up.
·We expect the growth recovery to remain on track, as it is mainly driven by domestic demand.
10 December 2012
Asia Insights: China: Exports slowed but domestic demand remains strong
·China’s export growth slowed more than expected in November to 2.9% y-o-y from 11.6% in October.
·Import growth slowed to 0.0% y-o-y from 2.4%, but import growth for domestic consumption picked up.
·We expect the growth recovery to remain on track, as it is mainly driven by domestic demand.
Sunday, December 9, 2012
First Insights: China: Trade slows but the growth recovery remains on track
First Insights: China: Trade slows but the growth recovery remains on track
Export growth slowed to 2.9% y-o-y in November from 11.6% in October (Consensus 9%, Nomura 7%), while import growth slowed to 0% from 2.4% (Consensus 2.0%, Nomura 0%).
Export growth slowed to 2.9% y-o-y in November from 11.6% in October (Consensus 9%, Nomura 7%), while import growth slowed to 0% from 2.4% (Consensus 2.0%, Nomura 0%).
Turkey: Still in a sweet spot
Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Emerging Markets
https://research.commerzbank.com
Turkey: Still in a sweet spot
Following our October visit, we wrote that the Turkish economy had entered a sweet spot – that slower growth and low commodity prices were having a materially positive impact on Turkey’s current account and inflation imbalances. Last month, current account and inflation data improved further. Meanwhile, Fitch upgraded Turkey to investment grade – the only such upgrade in the region since Lehman. Moody’s holds a positive outlook. Understandably, foreign capital is piling in.
Analyst:
Tatha Ghose
Emerging Markets
https://research.commerzbank.com
Turkey: Still in a sweet spot
Following our October visit, we wrote that the Turkish economy had entered a sweet spot – that slower growth and low commodity prices were having a materially positive impact on Turkey’s current account and inflation imbalances. Last month, current account and inflation data improved further. Meanwhile, Fitch upgraded Turkey to investment grade – the only such upgrade in the region since Lehman. Moody’s holds a positive outlook. Understandably, foreign capital is piling in.
Analyst:
Tatha Ghose
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