Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Mexico: October IP data point to continued growth moderation into Q4.
MEXICO
October IP data signal continued moderation in activity. Industrial production expanded 3.6% y/y in October, exceeding September’s 2.4% rise and coming in slightly better than the consensus expectation of 3.4% and our 3.0% projections. The manufacturing sector’s growth accelerated to 5.0% y/y from 1.9% y/y in October.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Brazil: Today, retail sales will probably prove robust again
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Brazil: Today, retail sales will probably prove robust again.
BRAZIL
We expect real retail sales to increase 1.2% in monthly terms, judging by coincident indicators. This represents annual growth of 9.8% y/y. Broad retail sales, which includes vehicles and construction spending, will show robust growth in monthly and annual terms, due to tax breaks.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Brazil: Today, retail sales will probably prove robust again.
BRAZIL
We expect real retail sales to increase 1.2% in monthly terms, judging by coincident indicators. This represents annual growth of 9.8% y/y. Broad retail sales, which includes vehicles and construction spending, will show robust growth in monthly and annual terms, due to tax breaks.
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook: At Policy Crossroads
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook: At Policy Crossroads
Key Points:
· The global economy is in the midst of a cyclical slowdown driven by both economics and politics.
· The maturation of the global cyclical growth phase suggests we look to a handoff to more secular drivers of growth. But strong secular drivers remain elusive due to the continuation of New Normal headwinds.
· Policies are at important crossroads in every major economy. Developed countries are struggling to find the right fiscal and monetary policy mix between cyclical stimulus and secular normality, while developing economies’ export-led models face a multitude of pressures.
· 2013 will be the year of policy change, with policymakers in major economies challenged to enact structural changes that spur private sector growth before government-balance-sheet-led growth is exhausted.
Key Points:
· The global economy is in the midst of a cyclical slowdown driven by both economics and politics.
· The maturation of the global cyclical growth phase suggests we look to a handoff to more secular drivers of growth. But strong secular drivers remain elusive due to the continuation of New Normal headwinds.
· Policies are at important crossroads in every major economy. Developed countries are struggling to find the right fiscal and monetary policy mix between cyclical stimulus and secular normality, while developing economies’ export-led models face a multitude of pressures.
· 2013 will be the year of policy change, with policymakers in major economies challenged to enact structural changes that spur private sector growth before government-balance-sheet-led growth is exhausted.
US Shale Not a Threat to Stable EMEA Oil and Gas Outlook
13 Dec 2012 10:18 AM
US Shale Not a Threat to Stable EMEA Oil and Gas Outlook
Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: 2013 Outlook: EMEA Oil and Gas
Fitch Ratings-London-13 December 2012: Cheap US shale gas is not a material threat to the EMEA oil and gas sector in 2013, Fitch Ratings says. A lack of US export infrastructure, a political desire for the US to be self-sufficient in gas, and the prevalence of long-term oil-based gas supply contracts in Europe all suggest at worst modest downward pressure on European prices in the short to medium term.
US Shale Not a Threat to Stable EMEA Oil and Gas Outlook
Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: 2013 Outlook: EMEA Oil and Gas
Fitch Ratings-London-13 December 2012: Cheap US shale gas is not a material threat to the EMEA oil and gas sector in 2013, Fitch Ratings says. A lack of US export infrastructure, a political desire for the US to be self-sufficient in gas, and the prevalence of long-term oil-based gas supply contracts in Europe all suggest at worst modest downward pressure on European prices in the short to medium term.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Turkey: No surprises on c/a deficit
Turkey: No surprises on c/a deficit
At USD 1.96bn, current account deficit was slightly below the market consensus (USD 2.1bn) and our forecast (USD 2.0bn) in October. As a result, 12-month cumulative current account deficit declined to USD 53.1bn from USD 55.7bn in September. Similarly, 12-month cumulative non-energy current account deficit fell to USD 1.4bn, from USD 3.9bn. Net gold exports continued to support the narrowing in the current account deficit. 12-month cumulative net gold exports amounted to USD 5.2bn, from USD 3.7bn in September. Current account deficit, excluding gold and energy also continued to improve, partly reflecting the holiday effect in October.
At USD 1.96bn, current account deficit was slightly below the market consensus (USD 2.1bn) and our forecast (USD 2.0bn) in October. As a result, 12-month cumulative current account deficit declined to USD 53.1bn from USD 55.7bn in September. Similarly, 12-month cumulative non-energy current account deficit fell to USD 1.4bn, from USD 3.9bn. Net gold exports continued to support the narrowing in the current account deficit. 12-month cumulative net gold exports amounted to USD 5.2bn, from USD 3.7bn in September. Current account deficit, excluding gold and energy also continued to improve, partly reflecting the holiday effect in October.
Chile: Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 12 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November.
CHILE
Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November. Consumer confidence rose to 53.4 last month, according to Adimark. This is the sixth straight month with consumer sentiment readings above the 50 neutral level.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 12 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November.
CHILE
Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November. Consumer confidence rose to 53.4 last month, according to Adimark. This is the sixth straight month with consumer sentiment readings above the 50 neutral level.
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
U.S. Commercial, Multi-family Mortgage Debt Outstanding Increases for Fourth Consecutive Quarter
World Property Channel
U.S. Commercial, Multi-family Mortgage Debt Outstanding Increases for Fourth Consecutive Quarter
Posted by David Barley 12/11/12 1:10 PM EST
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $6.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, in the third quarter of 2012, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings.
U.S. Commercial, Multi-family Mortgage Debt Outstanding Increases for Fourth Consecutive Quarter
Posted by David Barley 12/11/12 1:10 PM EST
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $6.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, in the third quarter of 2012, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings.
Eco Analysis - More evidence of China in early-cycle expansion
Eco Analysis - More evidence of China in early-cycle expansion
■ Strong fiscal revenue growth
China's fiscal revenue growth rebounded further to 21.9%yoy in November from 13.7%yoy in October, the fastest pace since August 2011. More importantly, tax revenues grew 21.1%yoy, compared with 12.5%yoy in the previous month and 9%yoy during the first ten months. Value-added tax, which contributes one-quarter of total tax revenues, recovered quite strongly and grew 16.2%yoy in November (vs. 9.2%yoy in October), consistent with the improving trend in industrial and retail sales. The strength of fiscal revenue is another piece of evidence that the Chinese economy is recovering.
■ Strong fiscal revenue growth
China's fiscal revenue growth rebounded further to 21.9%yoy in November from 13.7%yoy in October, the fastest pace since August 2011. More importantly, tax revenues grew 21.1%yoy, compared with 12.5%yoy in the previous month and 9%yoy during the first ten months. Value-added tax, which contributes one-quarter of total tax revenues, recovered quite strongly and grew 16.2%yoy in November (vs. 9.2%yoy in October), consistent with the improving trend in industrial and retail sales. The strength of fiscal revenue is another piece of evidence that the Chinese economy is recovering.
Monday, December 10, 2012
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 10 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week.
CHILE
The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week. BCCh will have its monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday. We expect no changes, in line with trends throughout most of the year. The consensus agrees with this view.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 10 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week.
CHILE
The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week. BCCh will have its monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday. We expect no changes, in line with trends throughout most of the year. The consensus agrees with this view.
Turkey: GDP Surprises on the Downside
Turkey: GDP Surprises on the Downside
At 1.6% y/y, Q3 GDP growth was weaker than the expectations (2.6% y/y) and our forecast (3.2% y/y). On a seasonally adjusted basis GDP grew by 0.2% q/q in Q3, broadly in line with our expectation. The downward surprise in the headline growth number was mostly on the back of weaker-than-expected private investment and exports. The contribution of private sector investment was -2.2pp to growth. The expansion in exports slowed down to 11.9% y/y in Q3 from 20.9% y/y in Q2, still the contribution of foreign demand was 3.4pp. Consumption of households subtracted 0.4pp from growth whereas public sector spending contributed 0.8pp to growth. At the same time, Q1 GDP growth was revised to 3.4% from 3.3%, and Q2 GDP growth to 3% from 2.9%.
At 1.6% y/y, Q3 GDP growth was weaker than the expectations (2.6% y/y) and our forecast (3.2% y/y). On a seasonally adjusted basis GDP grew by 0.2% q/q in Q3, broadly in line with our expectation. The downward surprise in the headline growth number was mostly on the back of weaker-than-expected private investment and exports. The contribution of private sector investment was -2.2pp to growth. The expansion in exports slowed down to 11.9% y/y in Q3 from 20.9% y/y in Q2, still the contribution of foreign demand was 3.4pp. Consumption of households subtracted 0.4pp from growth whereas public sector spending contributed 0.8pp to growth. At the same time, Q1 GDP growth was revised to 3.4% from 3.3%, and Q2 GDP growth to 3% from 2.9%.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)