US Outlook 2013
Bulent Baygun,Interest Rate Team - Rates
Desknotes US | 14 Dec 2012 15:29 |
Summary
We are facing a period of increased demand for high-quality paper, which should
keep funds flowing into Treasuries, agencies, mortgages and SSAs.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Global inflation outlook 2013
Global inflation outlook 2013
Azusa Kato,David Tinsley,Dominique Barbet,Gizem Kara,Jacqueline Rong,Jeremy Lawson,Marcelo Carvalho,Ryutaro Kono,Xingdong Chen - Market Economics
Economic Desknote Global | 14 Dec 2012 12:52 |
Summary
Global Outlook
We expect global inflation in 2013 to remain broadly unchanged from 2012, at around 3½%. Inflation rates will vary between regions and countries, though. Although inflation should remain stable around 2% in the higher-income economies, emerging and developing economies are likely to see inflation edge up slightly, to 5.4% from 5.2% in 2012. Among the advanced economies, US inflation is likely to remain broadly stable at around 2% in 2013, while in the eurozone, we expect inflation to slow to 1.6% in 2013 from 2.5% in 2012. Among the major emerging economies, Asia ex-Japan and Latin America should see inflation inch up next year. Most notably, our forecast for Brazil suggests that inflation is likely to be much more of a headache than people think.
Azusa Kato,David Tinsley,Dominique Barbet,Gizem Kara,Jacqueline Rong,Jeremy Lawson,Marcelo Carvalho,Ryutaro Kono,Xingdong Chen - Market Economics
Economic Desknote Global | 14 Dec 2012 12:52 |
Summary
Global Outlook
We expect global inflation in 2013 to remain broadly unchanged from 2012, at around 3½%. Inflation rates will vary between regions and countries, though. Although inflation should remain stable around 2% in the higher-income economies, emerging and developing economies are likely to see inflation edge up slightly, to 5.4% from 5.2% in 2012. Among the advanced economies, US inflation is likely to remain broadly stable at around 2% in 2013, while in the eurozone, we expect inflation to slow to 1.6% in 2013 from 2.5% in 2012. Among the major emerging economies, Asia ex-Japan and Latin America should see inflation inch up next year. Most notably, our forecast for Brazil suggests that inflation is likely to be much more of a headache than people think.
London office market: Good prospects from 2014
London office market: Good prospects from 2014
In its latest research paper, Henderson’s c. £12.4 billion Property business, examines prospects for the Central London office market. The report notes that City Fringe, West End and Midtown sub-markets have benefitted from strong take up by technology, media and telecommunications firms during an otherwise difficult year for the domestic economy. Core City take up has been dominated by lettings from the insurance sector with very subdued activity from banking. Underlying City take-up has been relatively stable over the last 12 months or so, at around 75% of the long run average. This sub-par level of activity is expected to persist while low confidence and volatility persists in the markets.
http://www.property-magazine.eu/london-office-market-good-prospects-from-2014-23396.html
In its latest research paper, Henderson’s c. £12.4 billion Property business, examines prospects for the Central London office market. The report notes that City Fringe, West End and Midtown sub-markets have benefitted from strong take up by technology, media and telecommunications firms during an otherwise difficult year for the domestic economy. Core City take up has been dominated by lettings from the insurance sector with very subdued activity from banking. Underlying City take-up has been relatively stable over the last 12 months or so, at around 75% of the long run average. This sub-par level of activity is expected to persist while low confidence and volatility persists in the markets.
http://www.property-magazine.eu/london-office-market-good-prospects-from-2014-23396.html
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Brazil: Retail sales – Moving up in a non-linear pace
Brazil: Retail sales – Moving up in a non-linear pace
Gustavo Arruda - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 Dec 2012 13:52 |
October retail sales grew 0.9%m/m, slightly above consensus of +0.8m/m and better than the September reading of 0.3%. Within sectors, three of ten sectors contracted (apparel contracted for the third month in a row). Durable goods (the most credit-related component) gained 1.4%m/m or 13.0%y/y, while non-durable goods expanded 0.1%m/m or 6.7%y/y. Broad retail sales (including construction and vehicles sales) jumped 8%m/m in October from -8.7%m/m a month earlier, due to tax breaks on vehicles sales. Looking forward, we expect retail sales to decelerate in November due to an unusually extended holiday, but they should bounce back in December. Despite volatility in these releases, we believe the trend in retail sales will probably strengthen, on the back of monetary, fiscal and credit measures - all focused on spurring growth.
Gustavo Arruda - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 Dec 2012 13:52 |
October retail sales grew 0.9%m/m, slightly above consensus of +0.8m/m and better than the September reading of 0.3%. Within sectors, three of ten sectors contracted (apparel contracted for the third month in a row). Durable goods (the most credit-related component) gained 1.4%m/m or 13.0%y/y, while non-durable goods expanded 0.1%m/m or 6.7%y/y. Broad retail sales (including construction and vehicles sales) jumped 8%m/m in October from -8.7%m/m a month earlier, due to tax breaks on vehicles sales. Looking forward, we expect retail sales to decelerate in November due to an unusually extended holiday, but they should bounce back in December. Despite volatility in these releases, we believe the trend in retail sales will probably strengthen, on the back of monetary, fiscal and credit measures - all focused on spurring growth.
Chile: BCCh remained on hold, as expected; all eyes on the IPoM next week
Chile: BCCh remained on hold, as expected; all eyes on the IPoM next week
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 Dec 2012 22:52 |
Chile’s central bank decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5% at today’s monetary policy meeting. The decision stood in line with both our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey.
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 Dec 2012 22:52 |
Chile’s central bank decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5% at today’s monetary policy meeting. The decision stood in line with both our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey.
CBD Office Buildings Outperforms Other Commercial Sectors in the U.S.
World Property Channel
EDITION MAIN PAGE | North America Commercial News
CBD Office Buildings Outperforms Other Commercial Sectors in the U.S.
Posted by Hortense Leon 12/13/12 10:40 AM EST
CBD office real estate prices in the US continue to out-shine other core commercial sectors, including suburban office, industrial and retail, according to Moody's/RCA Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) report for October, which includes data from August, September and October 2012 (the latest data available for the CPPI). This reflects strong institutional demand even as there was a 1.0% decline in core commercial overall as measured by the CPPI.
EDITION MAIN PAGE | North America Commercial News
CBD Office Buildings Outperforms Other Commercial Sectors in the U.S.
Posted by Hortense Leon 12/13/12 10:40 AM EST
CBD office real estate prices in the US continue to out-shine other core commercial sectors, including suburban office, industrial and retail, according to Moody's/RCA Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) report for October, which includes data from August, September and October 2012 (the latest data available for the CPPI). This reflects strong institutional demand even as there was a 1.0% decline in core commercial overall as measured by the CPPI.
Venezuela: President Chavez faces a tough recovery process.
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Venezuela: President Chavez faces a tough recovery process.
VENEZUELA
President Chavez faces a tough recovery process, Vice President Maduro said. Vice President Maduro said yesterday in a national address that while the president’s surgery was successful, it was also delicate and complex. As a result, President Chavez faces a difficult recovery process.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Venezuela: President Chavez faces a tough recovery process.
VENEZUELA
President Chavez faces a tough recovery process, Vice President Maduro said. Vice President Maduro said yesterday in a national address that while the president’s surgery was successful, it was also delicate and complex. As a result, President Chavez faces a difficult recovery process.
Argentina: The group of interested non-parties in lawsuit in US courts gets larger.
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Argentina: The group of interested non-parties in lawsuit in US courts gets larger.
ARGENTINA
Another fund joins the group of interested non-parties to appeal the District Court orders adversely affecting Argentina. Fintech Advisory Inc. filed a brief before the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, thus joining the group of interested non-parties appealing Judge Griesa's ruling that lifted the stay in place and ordered Argentina to make a payment into an escrow account for the benefit of holdout creditors. Unless this payment was made, the Judge made it impossible for Argentina to continue servicing performing debt issued in the two 2005 and 2010 debt exchanges. The stay was later reinstated by the Appeals Court.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Argentina: The group of interested non-parties in lawsuit in US courts gets larger.
ARGENTINA
Another fund joins the group of interested non-parties to appeal the District Court orders adversely affecting Argentina. Fintech Advisory Inc. filed a brief before the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, thus joining the group of interested non-parties appealing Judge Griesa's ruling that lifted the stay in place and ordered Argentina to make a payment into an escrow account for the benefit of holdout creditors. Unless this payment was made, the Judge made it impossible for Argentina to continue servicing performing debt issued in the two 2005 and 2010 debt exchanges. The stay was later reinstated by the Appeals Court.
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold today.
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold today.
CHILE
The central bank is expected to remain on hold today. BCCh will have its monthly monetary policy meeting this afternoon. We forecast no changes, in line with trends throughout most of the year. The consensus agrees with this view.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold today.
CHILE
The central bank is expected to remain on hold today. BCCh will have its monthly monetary policy meeting this afternoon. We forecast no changes, in line with trends throughout most of the year. The consensus agrees with this view.
Colombia: Imports rebound in October and reflect improved domestic demand.
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Colombia: Imports rebound in October and reflect improved domestic demand.
COLOMBIA
Imports rebounded in October. Imports increased to USD 5.2bn in October from USD 4.8bn in the year-ago period, reflecting a 7.8% y/y increase. Imports rose 8.6% in the first eight months of the year over the same period in 2011.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Colombia: Imports rebound in October and reflect improved domestic demand.
COLOMBIA
Imports rebounded in October. Imports increased to USD 5.2bn in October from USD 4.8bn in the year-ago period, reflecting a 7.8% y/y increase. Imports rose 8.6% in the first eight months of the year over the same period in 2011.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)