Asia Insights: China: Mixed signals from leading indicators

Fixed Income | Asia Ex-Japan
21 December 2012

Asia Insights: China: Mixed signals from leading indicators

· Nomura's China leading indicator fell in November, but we expect it to pickup in December (Bloomberg ticker: NMEICLI).

· Our heatmap continues to improve, with 67% of indicators positive in November, up from a revised 65% in October.

· We expect growth momentum to continue to build, and maintain our above-consensus GDP forecasts for 4Q and Q1 2013.

In Race to Recover Peak Commercial Real Estate Values, Boston on Top, Followed by Manhattan

World Property Channel

In Race to Recover Peak Commercial Real Estate Values, Boston on Top, Followed by Manhattan
Posted by Hortense Leon 11/20/12 11:00 AM EST

Commercial real estate prices in Manhattan over the 12 months ending September 30th were up 16.3%, according to Moody's/RCA Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI). What this means is that New York has joined the exclusive club of major metropolitan areas with the greatest price gains in that period, Boston being the only other market in that category.

Chile Central Bank Gives 'Yellow Card' to Real Estate Sector

World Property Channel

Chile Central Bank Gives 'Yellow Card' to Real Estate Sector
Posted by Darin Bifani 12/20/12 10:46 AM EST

Apart from the famous asado, one of the great Chilean national pastimes is soccer. Rather than one of the players on the famous Universidad de Chile or Colo-Colo teams, however, the most recent recipient of a yellow card was the Chilean real estate sector.

A Crucial Leading Indicator Of Commercial Real Estate Hits Its Best Level Since 2007

A Crucial Leading Indicator Of Commercial Real Estate Hits Its Best Level Since 2007
Dec. 19, 2012, 1:07 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Signaling Gains for Fourth Straight Month

Billings at architecture firms across the country continue to increase. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the November ABI score was 53.2, up from the mark of 52.8 in October. This score reflects an increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 59.6, up slightly from the 59.4 mark of the previous month.

PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for the U.S.: Will Washington’s Choices Foster or Frustrate Growth?

PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for the U.S.: Will Washington’s Choices Foster or Frustrate Growth?

· We expect U.S. growth in the range of 1.25% to 1.75% over the cyclical horizon, and housing will be an important component.

PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook for Asia: Awaiting the Policy Breakthrough

A new Economic Outlook Q&A with Tomoya Masanao, Robert Mead and Ramin Toloui is now available on pimco.com.

PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook for Asia: Awaiting the Policy Breakthrough

· The cyclical economic outlook for 2013 is unusually dependent upon whether we see a structural policy breakthrough somewhere in the world.

Turnaround Continues for CMBS Market in 2013, But Fiscal Cliff Bears Watching

World Property Channel

Turnaround Continues for CMBS Market in 2013, But Fiscal Cliff Bears Watching
Posted by Hortense Leon 12/19/12 8:59 AM EST

The commercial real estate market, and the U.S. CMBS market in particular, are likely to see steady improvement in the New Year, says Huxley Somerville, head of US CMBS at Fitch Ratings in New York. "A slow increase in volume is preferable; we would not like to see a 50% increase over 2012," he says. "A 15% to 20% increase would be much better. Otherwise, competition would lead to the erosion of underwriting standards."

Is 2013 the Year of $50 Oil and $1,200 Gold?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100323544

Is 2013 the Year of $50 Oil and $1,200 Gold?

Published: Tuesday, 18 Dec 2012 | 4:29 AM ET
By: Catherine Boyle
Staff Writer, CNBC.com

Drastic falls in the price of oil and gold, doubling of the yield in 30-year Treasurys and mass nationalizations in Japan's struggling electronics industry may be on the agenda next year.

Chile: The monetary policy report will attract attention this week.

Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 17 Dec 2012 06:00 |

Chile: The monetary policy report will attract attention this week.

CHILE

In a week with no economic data scheduled to be released, the monetary policy report (IPoM) will attract attention. The central bank is scheduled to unveil the IPoM on Tuesday. While the monetary authority has continued to signal lately that it remains comfortably on hold near term, the IPoM will be looked at closely for relevant information on the official views about the medium-term outlook for growth and inflation. In particular, potential changes to the official real GDP and CPI forecasts will attract attention. The official characterization of the recent moderation in the sequential pace of real GDP will be also worth reading, as well as trends for the current account result. Recall that several comments on the widening current account deficits have been made recently by authorities.

Buoyed by the rebounding auto sector, local industry is showing growth

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

Buoyed by the rebounding auto sector, local industry is showing growth
By Norman DeBono, The London Free Press
Friday, December 14, 2012 6:53:11 EST PM

Led by the industrial sector, the commercial real estate market in the London area is showing encouraging signs.