PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for the U.S.: Will Washington’s Choices Foster or Frustrate Growth?
· We expect U.S. growth in the range of 1.25% to 1.75% over the cyclical horizon, and housing will be an important component.
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook for Asia: Awaiting the Policy Breakthrough
A new Economic Outlook Q&A with Tomoya Masanao, Robert Mead and Ramin Toloui is now available on pimco.com.
PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook for Asia: Awaiting the Policy Breakthrough
· The cyclical economic outlook for 2013 is unusually dependent upon whether we see a structural policy breakthrough somewhere in the world.
PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook for Asia: Awaiting the Policy Breakthrough
· The cyclical economic outlook for 2013 is unusually dependent upon whether we see a structural policy breakthrough somewhere in the world.
Turnaround Continues for CMBS Market in 2013, But Fiscal Cliff Bears Watching
World Property Channel
Turnaround Continues for CMBS Market in 2013, But Fiscal Cliff Bears Watching
Posted by Hortense Leon 12/19/12 8:59 AM EST
The commercial real estate market, and the U.S. CMBS market in particular, are likely to see steady improvement in the New Year, says Huxley Somerville, head of US CMBS at Fitch Ratings in New York. "A slow increase in volume is preferable; we would not like to see a 50% increase over 2012," he says. "A 15% to 20% increase would be much better. Otherwise, competition would lead to the erosion of underwriting standards."
Turnaround Continues for CMBS Market in 2013, But Fiscal Cliff Bears Watching
Posted by Hortense Leon 12/19/12 8:59 AM EST
The commercial real estate market, and the U.S. CMBS market in particular, are likely to see steady improvement in the New Year, says Huxley Somerville, head of US CMBS at Fitch Ratings in New York. "A slow increase in volume is preferable; we would not like to see a 50% increase over 2012," he says. "A 15% to 20% increase would be much better. Otherwise, competition would lead to the erosion of underwriting standards."
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Is 2013 the Year of $50 Oil and $1,200 Gold?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100323544
Is 2013 the Year of $50 Oil and $1,200 Gold?
Published: Tuesday, 18 Dec 2012 | 4:29 AM ET
By: Catherine Boyle
Staff Writer, CNBC.com
Drastic falls in the price of oil and gold, doubling of the yield in 30-year Treasurys and mass nationalizations in Japan's struggling electronics industry may be on the agenda next year.
Is 2013 the Year of $50 Oil and $1,200 Gold?
Published: Tuesday, 18 Dec 2012 | 4:29 AM ET
By: Catherine Boyle
Staff Writer, CNBC.com
Drastic falls in the price of oil and gold, doubling of the yield in 30-year Treasurys and mass nationalizations in Japan's struggling electronics industry may be on the agenda next year.
Monday, December 17, 2012
Chile: The monetary policy report will attract attention this week.
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 17 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The monetary policy report will attract attention this week.
CHILE
In a week with no economic data scheduled to be released, the monetary policy report (IPoM) will attract attention. The central bank is scheduled to unveil the IPoM on Tuesday. While the monetary authority has continued to signal lately that it remains comfortably on hold near term, the IPoM will be looked at closely for relevant information on the official views about the medium-term outlook for growth and inflation. In particular, potential changes to the official real GDP and CPI forecasts will attract attention. The official characterization of the recent moderation in the sequential pace of real GDP will be also worth reading, as well as trends for the current account result. Recall that several comments on the widening current account deficits have been made recently by authorities.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 17 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The monetary policy report will attract attention this week.
CHILE
In a week with no economic data scheduled to be released, the monetary policy report (IPoM) will attract attention. The central bank is scheduled to unveil the IPoM on Tuesday. While the monetary authority has continued to signal lately that it remains comfortably on hold near term, the IPoM will be looked at closely for relevant information on the official views about the medium-term outlook for growth and inflation. In particular, potential changes to the official real GDP and CPI forecasts will attract attention. The official characterization of the recent moderation in the sequential pace of real GDP will be also worth reading, as well as trends for the current account result. Recall that several comments on the widening current account deficits have been made recently by authorities.
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Buoyed by the rebounding auto sector, local industry is showing growth
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Buoyed by the rebounding auto sector, local industry is showing growth
By Norman DeBono, The London Free Press
Friday, December 14, 2012 6:53:11 EST PM
Led by the industrial sector, the commercial real estate market in the London area is showing encouraging signs.
Buoyed by the rebounding auto sector, local industry is showing growth
By Norman DeBono, The London Free Press
Friday, December 14, 2012 6:53:11 EST PM
Led by the industrial sector, the commercial real estate market in the London area is showing encouraging signs.
Friday, December 14, 2012
US Outlook 2013
US Outlook 2013
Bulent Baygun,Interest Rate Team - Rates
Desknotes US | 14 Dec 2012 15:29 |
Summary
We are facing a period of increased demand for high-quality paper, which should
keep funds flowing into Treasuries, agencies, mortgages and SSAs.
Bulent Baygun,Interest Rate Team - Rates
Desknotes US | 14 Dec 2012 15:29 |
Summary
We are facing a period of increased demand for high-quality paper, which should
keep funds flowing into Treasuries, agencies, mortgages and SSAs.
Global inflation outlook 2013
Global inflation outlook 2013
Azusa Kato,David Tinsley,Dominique Barbet,Gizem Kara,Jacqueline Rong,Jeremy Lawson,Marcelo Carvalho,Ryutaro Kono,Xingdong Chen - Market Economics
Economic Desknote Global | 14 Dec 2012 12:52 |
Summary
Global Outlook
We expect global inflation in 2013 to remain broadly unchanged from 2012, at around 3½%. Inflation rates will vary between regions and countries, though. Although inflation should remain stable around 2% in the higher-income economies, emerging and developing economies are likely to see inflation edge up slightly, to 5.4% from 5.2% in 2012. Among the advanced economies, US inflation is likely to remain broadly stable at around 2% in 2013, while in the eurozone, we expect inflation to slow to 1.6% in 2013 from 2.5% in 2012. Among the major emerging economies, Asia ex-Japan and Latin America should see inflation inch up next year. Most notably, our forecast for Brazil suggests that inflation is likely to be much more of a headache than people think.
Azusa Kato,David Tinsley,Dominique Barbet,Gizem Kara,Jacqueline Rong,Jeremy Lawson,Marcelo Carvalho,Ryutaro Kono,Xingdong Chen - Market Economics
Economic Desknote Global | 14 Dec 2012 12:52 |
Summary
Global Outlook
We expect global inflation in 2013 to remain broadly unchanged from 2012, at around 3½%. Inflation rates will vary between regions and countries, though. Although inflation should remain stable around 2% in the higher-income economies, emerging and developing economies are likely to see inflation edge up slightly, to 5.4% from 5.2% in 2012. Among the advanced economies, US inflation is likely to remain broadly stable at around 2% in 2013, while in the eurozone, we expect inflation to slow to 1.6% in 2013 from 2.5% in 2012. Among the major emerging economies, Asia ex-Japan and Latin America should see inflation inch up next year. Most notably, our forecast for Brazil suggests that inflation is likely to be much more of a headache than people think.
London office market: Good prospects from 2014
London office market: Good prospects from 2014
In its latest research paper, Henderson’s c. £12.4 billion Property business, examines prospects for the Central London office market. The report notes that City Fringe, West End and Midtown sub-markets have benefitted from strong take up by technology, media and telecommunications firms during an otherwise difficult year for the domestic economy. Core City take up has been dominated by lettings from the insurance sector with very subdued activity from banking. Underlying City take-up has been relatively stable over the last 12 months or so, at around 75% of the long run average. This sub-par level of activity is expected to persist while low confidence and volatility persists in the markets.
http://www.property-magazine.eu/london-office-market-good-prospects-from-2014-23396.html
In its latest research paper, Henderson’s c. £12.4 billion Property business, examines prospects for the Central London office market. The report notes that City Fringe, West End and Midtown sub-markets have benefitted from strong take up by technology, media and telecommunications firms during an otherwise difficult year for the domestic economy. Core City take up has been dominated by lettings from the insurance sector with very subdued activity from banking. Underlying City take-up has been relatively stable over the last 12 months or so, at around 75% of the long run average. This sub-par level of activity is expected to persist while low confidence and volatility persists in the markets.
http://www.property-magazine.eu/london-office-market-good-prospects-from-2014-23396.html
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Brazil: Retail sales – Moving up in a non-linear pace
Brazil: Retail sales – Moving up in a non-linear pace
Gustavo Arruda - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 Dec 2012 13:52 |
October retail sales grew 0.9%m/m, slightly above consensus of +0.8m/m and better than the September reading of 0.3%. Within sectors, three of ten sectors contracted (apparel contracted for the third month in a row). Durable goods (the most credit-related component) gained 1.4%m/m or 13.0%y/y, while non-durable goods expanded 0.1%m/m or 6.7%y/y. Broad retail sales (including construction and vehicles sales) jumped 8%m/m in October from -8.7%m/m a month earlier, due to tax breaks on vehicles sales. Looking forward, we expect retail sales to decelerate in November due to an unusually extended holiday, but they should bounce back in December. Despite volatility in these releases, we believe the trend in retail sales will probably strengthen, on the back of monetary, fiscal and credit measures - all focused on spurring growth.
Gustavo Arruda - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 Dec 2012 13:52 |
October retail sales grew 0.9%m/m, slightly above consensus of +0.8m/m and better than the September reading of 0.3%. Within sectors, three of ten sectors contracted (apparel contracted for the third month in a row). Durable goods (the most credit-related component) gained 1.4%m/m or 13.0%y/y, while non-durable goods expanded 0.1%m/m or 6.7%y/y. Broad retail sales (including construction and vehicles sales) jumped 8%m/m in October from -8.7%m/m a month earlier, due to tax breaks on vehicles sales. Looking forward, we expect retail sales to decelerate in November due to an unusually extended holiday, but they should bounce back in December. Despite volatility in these releases, we believe the trend in retail sales will probably strengthen, on the back of monetary, fiscal and credit measures - all focused on spurring growth.
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